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The Origins of RandomnessThe concept of randomness is possibly as old as mankind. There is
evidence that peoples from the earliest times realized that certain events
could not be predicted with absolute certainty. The astragalus, a
precursor to the die made from the knuckle bone of animals, was
found in archeological sites of early peoples. The earliest
manufactured dice date from the 3rd millennium b.c. in northern Iraq
and in India. Cards were developed in China between 700 and 1000 a.c.e.
Early dice and astragali had three uses based on the concept
of randomness: board games and games of chance; divination; and
gambling. In Egypt, astragali and dice were used in games to move
pieces around a game board. The game was an early form of
backgammon. In the middle east, astragali were used to play a
game which historians call astragalus. The Greeks and Romans used
dice in games of chance from about 300 b.c. It is thought that many of these
games originated in the middle
east and asia and spread westward.
Dice and astragali were also used in divination and soothsaying
to make the wishes of the deity known. The game of odds and evens
has been used for divination from the first recorded history and is still u
used among African tribes. In one version, a random number of objects is thrown
by the priest. If the number of objects is odd, the wish is granted.
In Greece and Rome, four astragali were thrown. The answer to the
request was given based on the four upper sides by referring to
tablets upon which the meanings of various combinations were set out.
The games of chance used for play or in divination also formed the
basis for early gambling.
Although the concept of randomness was evident from the earliest times, the development
of the concept
of probability took much longer. The first suggestion of an instinctive feeling about
the likelihood of an event occurred with Greek mathematicians and Roman philosophers.
Cicero indicated in his writings that certain combinations of throws of four dice were
very unlikely. However, nothing was done to explore these ideas at this time.
Source: David, F.N. Games, Gods and Gambling, A History of Probability and Statistical Ideas. Dover, 1998.
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